Anyone else think the last bull run would have started pre-halving if it weren't for the Covid black swan?

Looking back at the chart for BTC, pre halving we looked to have been in relatively the same range as we were now compared to the all time highs.... and then Covid hit, delaying the run.

I think there is something to be said here and to help better fuel predictions for this run. What could an earlier run look like and how would it impact the overall time frame? I read a lot of people speculating that things will be peaking around the end of 2024 but at this rate maybe we're on for a summer run?

With all that being said I do expect things to temporaily peak around ATH, and then cool off for a bit... while the headlines pull in the next wave of buyers. What are all your thoughts!?