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Are there any indicators that can warn us that an exchange is going bankrupt or a project is failing?

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Lately I've been digging into the past to see reactions to famous bankruptcies like Celsius, the LUNA/UST disaster and FTX. Here I'm sharing what I've found and hoping you can add some facts.

In this post ("Celsius is insolvent, please get your funds out now"), a user warned that there were signs that Celsius might go bankrupt. Here's the first important point: always be careful about the mood of this sub. Many users react this way (and you can't really blame them):

https://preview.redd.it/9elj3a5bl8rb1.jpg?width=338&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=951020a2679dc371d5d1943eb80a0023299127c8

Very famous is this post by u/DU09: "Terra / Luna / UST Ecosystem Risks - How real are they? UST hodlers assemble!". He explained how a LUNA/UST depeg can happen, but as you may know, most users don't read the posts and start commenting anyway. Not surprisingly, people first didn't believe him:

https://preview.redd.it/m4jxd05dl8rb1.jpg?width=654&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f8761b1bf0a4bd8fd3869d52ef587a6ce2836ed6

Or how about FTX (" Withdraw your assets from FTX ASAP. ")? Users must have seen many posts like this one. And yet...

https://preview.redd.it/bq31wkjel8rb1.jpg?width=663&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=910b7d4bc8c6cda47c563ec48b4f3a1d052cfcf4

I don't want to throw dirt on them, that's an understandable reaction. But what can we do to be more careful? Here are some points from the first post about Celsius ( u/vocatus ):

  • "Delayed withdrawals, or very annoying measures put in place for withdrawls. Classic hallmark of an insolvent or fraudulent operation. The app makes it a pain to withdraw funds, while depositing is easy and instant."
  • "Loans from Tether. AKA not solvent. Anything touching Tether I don't want anything to do with."
  • "The CEO and his wife have been dumping CEL tokens for the last year. If they're dumping, the writing's on the wall source"

Needless to say: Just hodl and don't leave your funds on an exchange is the best you can do. Still, many people are afraid of self custody (or they're traders).

Can you add signs that could give us a heads up?

submitted by /u/telejoshi
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