Bitcoin Bottom Scenarios: Gradual Decline or Aggressive Rebound?

Glassnode's co-founders Happel and Allemann expect Bitcoin to bottom in either of two ways:

1. "Slow bleed to $24,800-$25,000."

2. "Fast, aggressive wick that gets bought up fast. Either way, we’ll bottom out shortly after one plays out. We’ve seen these two scenarios play out in the past whenever the BTC Risk Signal has hit 100.”

Other's, including myself, believe it could go lower.

https://preview.redd.it/17453p7757jb1.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6a6114f3472731b14526a665468af15f2068873c

BTC tends to experience a corrective move when the Risk Signal hits 100, as highlighted by the analysts' chart.

Rekt Capital notes Bitcoin's weakness after forming a bearish double-top pattern, indicating low buy-side pressure and potential for further seller pressure.

https://preview.redd.it/kj0s4pn267jb1.jpg?width=1788&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=815cbcdb05db99a8809d33e59d1ec7075f6cfb4a

"Buys aren’t ready or strong enough to properly step in and change the course of price action.

And current volume levels suggest seller pressure hasn’t even reached its peak yet.”

https://preview.redd.it/fb0j943j77jb1.png?width=1817&format=png&auto=webp&s=975f8ebb9ecc7cf72a71838896114662a774b0de

Given that Q3 and Q4 of the pre-halving year (and pre-election year) have historically been rough for BTC, the recent drop could be the beginning of the final bleed for this bear market. I believe there's a high likelihood of a drop to the 22k Fib levels and if we get enough volume from the demand side that could be the local bottom.

https://preview.redd.it/ee1qdoola7jb1.png?width=1436&format=png&auto=webp&s=e912a39127b3cce12c9522598703b95d58bfa99d