Could We Have Predicted This Dump? Look at ETH/BTC

There are many technical indicators that I use when I trade/invest in crypto. One useful indicator is ETH/BTC ratio. In general, I don't really pay attention to any alts/BTC ratio except for (1) BTC dominance (2) ETH/BTC and (3) LTC/BTC. We will discuss ETH/BTC below.

1. What is ETH/BTC? ETH/BTC is simply the ratio between price of 1 ETH and price of 1 BTC. Given that BTC has always been more expensive than ETH, ETH/BTC
2. When ETH/BTC is high, markets tend to dump. ETH/BTC had its peak at around February of 2018 (end of the last bull market) when it peaked at around 0.12. For those of you who were around that time, this was the time when BTC was starting to look weak but ETH was flourishing (similar environment to right now). And this concept of "flippening" started to take on a meme value in forums such as this one, where flippening refers to the process in which ETH overtakes BTC as the #1 crypto in the market. In retrospect, that was the end of the bull cycle run as BTC faltered even further and soon afterwards, ETH tumbled down as well, while ETH/BTC went down dramatically for the rest of the 2018.
3. So what about 2021? ETH/BTC hit some local peak values on couple of occasions: (1) middle of May at 0.0824 (2) early September at 0.0795 and (3) present time at 0.083. In all three cases after ETH/BTC hit its peak, BTC went down from 58K to 30K in mid May, 52K to 39K in early September, and 57 to 42K (and even lower?) right now. So there is a lot of supporting data that an abnormally high ETH/BTC means that market is about to dump.
4. So why does the market dump when ETH/BTC is high? This is my speculation. ETH/BTC being high means that ETH is strong but more importantly, it means that BTC is weak. So BTC is very vulnerable, but high ETH/BTC would also entail that the market prices in general is inflated. As such, this is the type of condition that leads to a massive dump of the market. And unfortunately, ETH has an asymmetric relationship with BTC in the sense that ETH cannot flourish when BTC is struggling (whereas BTC can flourish even when ETH is struggling).
5. So what should I do the next time ETH/BTC is high? The smart thing is to start selling off your position and wait for the dump. You would have benefitted from doing this in February of 2018, May of 2021, Sept of 2021, and present time. And this indicator is something that builds up slowly so you have ample amount of time to react. In this weird sense, if you are just trading using the ETH/BTC indicator and not HODLing, you don't have to even buy Bitcoin. The simple strategy would be to buy ETH when ETH/BTC is low and sell to stablecoins when ETH/BTC is high. It is weird that if you trade using soley this indicator, your portfolio would always be x% ETH and 100-x% stablecoins. BTC would just be a useful index here. And if you backward test this simple method, it would be insanely profitable.

Hope you find this useful.