Even with a near 100% rally this year alone, there are barely any short-term holders or new investors while long-term holders keep dominating the markets.

Even after our hell of a rally in the first months of this year which saw BTC climb nearly 100% and BTC had already reached 100% gains off its bear market lows from November 2022. Still it does not quite fell like we are in a bull market or even a mini bull market situation. We over the past weeks just occasionally had periods where investors showed a lot of greed, while most of the times there has just been a lot of disbelief.

Typically a bull market is marked by a lot of short-term holders in the markets as those try to swing trade every rally and also a lot of new investors entering the markets. But right now it seems that even after a 100% rally long-term holders dominate the market completely, something that is very typical during bear market lows.

Chart from Glassnode, showing activity of “speculators“/short-term holders

This chart of the HODL waves shows the “young coins“ dominating the markets, meaning investors that hold their Crypto for less than 3 months thus short-term holders but also new investors that just entered in the last three months. But those kind of investors as of now just represent roughly 20%, which is comparable to bear market lows.

Even the mini bull market in 2019 saw a significant uptick in new investors and short-term holders, something we did not even nearly see this time, as long-term holders completely dominate with over 80% of the market share.

This possibly indicates that we are truly not quite there yet, the amount of speculation we would get during a massive rally has not entered the markets yet. Which either leaves a lot of rooms to the upside for this rally or shows that this rally may just be a bear market rally after all. What do you think?