How unlikely it is to guess a Seed Phrase (12 vs 24 words)
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![[IMAGE]](https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/yPdmEPRlIeG6orJ1szKEws-NnrmLOBkUoPSzPX62--s.jpg) | Warning, contains math! RepetitionWhat's the probability of NOT throwing a 6 with a die? What's the probabiltiy NOT throwing a 6 with a die 10 times in a row? Seed with 12 wordsWe get 12 words out of a list of 2048. This gives us 2048^12 different theoretically possible seed phrases. The probability of failing to guess the correct seed phrase is: There's only 1 correct seed phrase, so we get (2048^12)-1 possibilities to not guess it. This is the result: The chance of not guessing the right seed is 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999998 % (that's 37 nines after the point) Pretty much elusive. Let's use a CPU for a year (hypothetically)My CPU has 16 cores that can run 32 parallel threads to guess seeds. Using private keys I got 350,000 keys per second when trying to guess 152,000 random addresses from a list (Python project). This is the math for guessing seeds using my CPU 24/7 for a whole year: Just like we rolled the dice 10 times we now do this 350k*150k*.... times. 60 seconds, 60 minutes, 24 hours, 365 days. This is the result: The chance of not guessing the right seed is 99.99999999999999999997 % (still 19 nines after the point!) Okay, 1,000,000 years thenNot surprisingly the number of nines was reduced by 6: 99.99999999999997% Still absurdly unlikely and not worth the energy. Also I would be dead after 0.004% of that time span. 1 year of crunching against 24-word Seed99.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999994 % 57 numbers after the point! This corresponds to roughly the same probability as guessing a private key with 256 Bit! [link][comments] |
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