My perceived 6 months BTC cyclical pattern

We were all devastated and burnt out after the 2022 FTX dump, many of us lost money and faith in crypto. However, some people were still able to make money by finding patterns, all speculative and not definitive of course!

Starting in January 2023, BTC had it's first big pump from around 15 k to 25 k in a span of (~ 2 months) from January 1 to February 21, then dropped to 20 k in March 11 (~ 1 month).

1st hypothetical cycle

A nice pump is followed all the way up to 30 k in April 19 (~ 1 month), a similar 10 k pump that happened back in February. A slow gradual drop to 25 k was achieved by June 15 (~ 2 months), After which a quick rebound drove the price back to the local ATH of 30 - 31k.

2nd hypothetical cycle

In the previous two hypothetical cycles it took on average around 10 - 15 days from the drop to get back up and achieve a new local ATH, meaning we might have around 5 days left for BTC to exceed 31k and reach 35 k ( A 10 k increase after the dump).

All this is speculation from my side based on the current data, and news seem to align well with when these dumps/pumps happen. What do you think of such speculation? And it seems to align well with the "imminent dump" of the housing market in September (2 months of dropping from July), followed by a pump going from October onwards to the BTC halving (April 2024).

TLDR: A local cycle of BTC behaviour seem to repeat itself, will it do it for a 3rd time? And will the "long awaited" September housing/real estate crash be the black swan event? Find out next on DBZ next week! (Here's a virtual hypothetical potato for the long post)