Previous BTC halvings, their effect on price and outlook to next halving

Allright guys, here some facts about the BTC halvings that we have seen in the past and their effect on it's price:

First halving - 2012:

• November 28, 2012
• Block rewards before the halving: 50 BTC
• Block rewards after the halving: 25 BTC
• Price before halving: around $12.50
• Price one year after halving: around $1,150
  • That's an increase of 9,100%

Second halving - 2016

• July 9, 2016
• Block rewards before the halving: 25 BTC
• Block rewards after the halving: 12.5 BTC
• Price before halving: around $650
• Price one year after halving: around $2,500
  • That's an increase of 285%

Third halving - 2020

• May 11, 2020
• Block rewards before the halving: 12.5BTC
• Block rewards after the halving: 6.25 BTC
• Price before halving: around $8,500
• Price one year after halving: around $55,000
  • That's an increase of 550%

As you might have noticed, the YTD price increase after the first halving was the most impactfull. However, at that point of time (2012!), BTC was in his glorious early, EARLY days. Acceptance and adoption were nearly not existent.

2016's price increase was kinda meh, especially when comparing to the first halving, but still a 285% increase. Investors at that time were able to nearly tripple their money in a year.

2020's halving and its increase was more than doubled in comparison to 2016's halving. Considering that we have seen crypto winter between January 2018 and December 2020, the halving was in the middle of crypto winter, but the YTD price comparison was when crypto winter ended already.
Based on that, the impact was more impactfull (in a positive way).

That leads me to my conclusion that, even tho BTC scarcity will increase with time, the impact of BTC halving will flat out. For the next halving, I expect a YTD price impact of around 100%.

What do you expect from the next halving?