Wake Me Up When September Ends

Some of you need to hear this....

I keep seeing people all hyped up about upcoming rate cuts, like somehow this is going to spur a massive bull run.

What you need to understand is that after a period of the Feds increasing interest rates, economic/financial instability arrives on the back end during or shortly after rate cuts. I won't use the word recession because it also seems to be triggering here.

September seems to be lining up as the first rate cut and historically September is also a very bad month for the stock market. I'm banking on it being a bloodbath.

The only thing that could possibly hold this off is the November election. The current government has been hiring part time workers at an alarming rate, the full-time worker numbers are dismal and once the government slows down and starts laying off these part-time workers the true jobs numbers will be impossible to ignore.

Either way the end of 2024 isn't going to be some Golden Bull Run, it's going to be pain, and BTC is still behaving like a risk on asset at the moment.

If you are speculating and don't plan to hold for 5+ years you should re-evaluate your position. The HODL crew should be okay, I don't expect BTC to go anywhere you just might be waiting a bit longer to see the coveted $100k.

TLDR: Rate cuts in the fall do not equal a massive bull run. Rate cuts that come on the tail end of rapidly increased rates end in pain. Just google Fed Interest Rates, expand the chart out to Max. The grey are recessions. They almost always come on the back end of rapid interest rate increases.